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EDITORIAL
Daily crude oil production averaged 149,000 bbls in September 1987, the first time it has
dropped below 150,000 bbls since 1972. This figure represents in 11% decline over the last 12 months and a 35%
decrease in peak average daily production of 230,000 bbls in 1978. While the significance of oil revenues in the
economic life of Trinidad and Tobago may be understood by all, the reality of declining production and reserves,
and the need to reverse this trend, are probably not as fully appreciated.
Average daily oil production in Trinidad and Tobago is shown in Figure 1, and extrapolated to the year 2000 based
on linear regression analysis, using data since 1978. Assuming no major new discoveries and continuing declining
production, sometime in 1991production will dip below 100,000 bbls a day, declining to less than 50,000 bbls a
day by 1997.
New oil must be found, in old or new areas, to arrest and eventually reverse declining production. This can only
be achieved through an integrated exploratory effort, combining geology, geophysics, geochemistry and reservoir
engineering, thus reducing risks and improving success ratios. The comment by the current president of the GSTT,
John Scott, in his address at the Society's annual dinner, is worth repeating: "An Oil Company that
ceases to explore will eventually cease to exist."
Those of us in exploration must utilise our undeniable expertise and considerable experience to mount a concerted
exploratory program. We must begin to look at Trinidad in its proper geologic perspective - as part of the Eastern
Venezuela Basin. The recent huge finds in Eastern Venezuela are encouraging and in this regard the N-S line between
Trinidad and Venezuela somewhere in the GuIf-of-Paria must be recognised for what it is - an imaginary line, of
political significance, but having no relevance to geological evaluations.
The last two major declines in oil production in Trinidad each preceded the discovery and development of giant
oil fields - Trinmar's Soldado field in the '60s and Amoco's east coast fields in the '70s. We are now in the third
such major decline in the '80s as we await the discovery of a new and significant find.
As you would have realised by now, the GSTT's Newsletter is back on stream after a 2 year absence with a new
format and biannual publication in April and October. In order to achieve our goals and to keep you, the membership,
reliably informed we require your co-operation and contributions. We would like to hear your views on topics
of a technical/geological nature and would appreciate written comments on feature articles, field trips etc. previously
published. This is your society and the success or failure of any of its endeavours, including the Newsletter,
is your responsibility.
KIRTON RODRIGUES
Editor
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P.O. Box 3524, La Romain, Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, W.I.