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The Next Exploration Surge: success into the 21st Century, Part2
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The Industry Direction
This can be defined broadly as three pronged.
1. To reduce cost through lowering head counts and increasing productivity.
2. Restructuring i.e. acquiring/divesting/consolidating and also through concentrating on core business areas.
Many of these issues have already been addressed and today we can benefit from emerging trends in hardware, software,
user interface and networking, Fig. 7. These are only some of the major benefits emerging from the Computer Aided
Exploration. However, without a properly structured database, the process can be greatly hindered.
The Exploration and Production Environment needs more precise and accurate interpretations. It needs to make timely
decisions which are critical to revenue), based on vast and varied amounts of information from many sources and
in many formats.
"It is obvious that the more integrated GIS data is with the organization's core business applications, then
consensus, sup-port and funding will follow" - by Bill Gordon.
It must be understood that information has value and it should be considered an asset of the corporation. This
valuable asset is used by many people and its value increases through sharing. The issues involved in database
and data structure are as follows:
- need to structure vast amounts and wide variety of multi-disciplinary data sets
- need for integrity and security of data
- most important is the structuring of data sets so that they can be quickly and easily accessed by the user
- need for quick and easy inputting of the data
- need for links between spatial data and attribute data.
However, the easiest and quickest way, as seen by the experts, is the interface between the geographical information
systems (GIS) and the relational database management systems (RDBMS).
Geographic Information Systems (Land Information Management)
This is a system of hardware, software and procedures, designed to support the capture, management, manipulation,
analysis, modeling and display of spatially referenced data for solving complex planning and management problems.
Simply put, "a computer system that can hold and use data describing places on the earth's surface".
RDBMS is where tabular or text data are stored in a relational form, in an attempt to tie attribute data to geography.
Spatial data has to be linked to a common co-ordinate system that will provide a standard geographic locator. Attribute
data must include some common indicator that will relate to the spatial data. The great advantage of automating
land information comes from the ability to combine locational information and text information, and to provide
seamless integration between applications, platforms, processes and users.
The result is that vendors are promising integration but delivering segregation, as vendors continue to treat the
corporate database as an attribute of geography instead of vice versa. This makes it difficult to be selective
when it comes to deciding which data should be geocoded. In Figure 8, what we have been promised in terms of integration is contrasted with what we have been given.
GIS implementations are costly and can take an average of four to five years to implement and should have some
relationship to the rest of the corporation. Geographic data must be a part of the overall corporate data structures.
Because it has its roots in cartography, surveying, census and engineering/CAD, none of which are decision oriented
and are purely technical concerns, GIS traditionally were not integrated with the business data and GIS developers
often do not understand the system architecture sufficiently and they have no model to follow. However enhancements
and developments continue today on both GIS and RDBMS separately.
The benefits of a GIS/LIM are many - entry, management, manipulation, analysis, query and display of large collections
of spatial data is made possible, it can be used as an automated draughting tool, graphical displays of information
maintained in a database can be made, and geographic features can be organised with descriptive characteristics.
M any organizations are interested in the linkages between GIS and eight closely related geographic data technologies,
as follows: document scanning systems, image processing systems, vector GIS, raster-based (GIS, Tabular (315, computer
aided draughting and design (CADD), video machine systems and surface modelling systems. The integration of these
technologies within a common computing and data management environment can be powerful tool. Today, Environmental
Systems Research Institute Inc are the leaders in the development of GIS (ARC-INFO) and linkages to most of the
associated geographic data technologies which can run in the workstation environment. The RDBMS has been developed
on many avail-able commercial databases, the most common being ORACLE. There are vendors who are working together
to come up with a properly structured E & P database.
The issue is not the benefits to be derived from the acquisition of a GIS or RDBMS or an integrated GIS/RDBMS by
each government agency, utility, state enterprise and private organization within the same country or state, but
the lack of co-ordination between all these institutions. They should be coordinated because they often all require
parts of the same data set and they need to interact with each other daily to make decisions using the same data
sets. As a result, they should all co-ordinate to ensure that all GIS/LIM data resides in one location, all data
sets are in the same format, the systems are the same so that they can talk to each other, to ensure the integrity
of the data and that standards are set and adhered to. The benefits of this approach are that each country/ state
would only need one GIS/ LIM, acquisition can be cost effective, implementation, training, data input and security
can be enhanced.
Corporate Architectural Model
There are three competing models available to the E & P environment in the 1990's:
- The mainframe/terminal model: developed in the 1970's, the use of devices by this model involves simple input/output
professionals to access mainframes. Most E&P data still exists on paper although some digital data and applications
reside in the mainframe. Access in this model is not interactive; it is not fast enough so that changes in parameters
can be made and timely responses can be received. It lacks graphic capabilities for serious geoscience visualization
and rarely are departmental terminals dedicated to interpretation only, so that interpretations are still done
on paper.
- The stand alone model developed in the 1980's, this model evolved because of the need for computers to manage
and analyze the large volumes of data which are generated by 3-D seismic shot by the E&P sectors. It involves
the use of more powerful and faster, dedicated computers, operating independently from the mainframe, storing both
applications and data and with colour graphic displays. Data access and interpretations became interactive, resulting
in much higher individual productivity, and giving higher quality interpretations through the enhanced ability
to examine complex data in greater detail. However, this system is costly because each worker has to have his own
software and datasets, so that only a few users with the most important projects have access to workstations and
everyone else waits or continues to work on paper.
- The client/server model developed in the l990's, this model evolved because of the strides made in computer technology.
It resulted in less expensive, higher performance "standard" hardware. Desktop workstations can now be
purchased "off the shelf" with most of the capabilities that petroleum explorationists need. The advantages
include lower cost per seat, more pleasant ergonomics, greater access to common data, applications and resources,
increased productivity and creativity, higher performance, expandability, and the preservation of previous investments.
The barriers to the introduction of this model are mainly the significant initial investment required, the sophisticated
system administration needed, concerns for security and data integrity and issues of reliability. The rapid advancement
of technology is addressing many of these issues. The main area of concern is then the system administration and
the selection of a specialist from either the E&P or MIS departments to handle the networking demands.
In summary, each company must evaluate their needs and do a requirement analysis to determine which model would
best meet their working needs. In the E&P sector, the client/ server configuration has so far been found to
be best suited.
Implementation
The exploration sector in Trinidad is way behind in implementing this technology. We need to get abreast of this
technology as of define remaining reservoirs. It will be the tool which will allow the quickest route to bridging
the technology gap in exploration and research. This will allow effective and efficient bargaining with joint venture
partners. Integrated Systems will provide quick access and effective utilization of multiple data sets, for the
generation of more efficient and more precise interpretations and analyses, in shorter time frames. Other benefits
include increased cost effectiveness of exploration and reservoir development projects, increased analytical and
interpretative skills in explorationists, more effective and better-informed decisions in shorter time frames,
and will allow for increased reserves and asset base. Professionals will spend less time in data acquisition and
more time making better interpretations and decisions. Companies that start now will have the competitive edge.
In the acquisition of this and any other system, complete reliability can only be achieved by maintenance. Maintenance
is costly but it is crucial to the acquisition of any system (Fig 9). Placing more emphasis on the acquisition than on this aspect will lead to problems, such as down-time,
which adversely affect productivity and profitability, and ultimately, the success and growth of the company.
Technology has driven hardware power and speed up and cost down at an astonishing rate, so that the most expensive
part of an effective computing environment now is the ever more power hungry software. These prices are expected
to go down in the foreseeable future because of the move towards standardization.
The important consideration which now remains is the cross communication and feedback operation, which all users
have access to in the same system. This networking will enable the latent talents and skills of employees to flower;
by development of a model, checking the model against results, and further refining the product, it will provide
the ability to reiterate in a feed back cycle.
Added to this is the ability to select and modify process, sequences and visualization procedures, optimally adapted
to each individual type of anomaly that may bear hydrocarbons. Such systems have the potential for unprecedented
success in hydrocarbon exploration.
The key element not present in any other system is the access to the extensive database, containing all relevant
data on-line in an archival mode. This concept, the science fiction of only a few years ago, is now possible through
high capacity on-line storage, such as very high density digital tapes and optical disks, and automatic loaders
that can hold enormous amounts of information, but which can search and locate primary data in several seconds
and, once located, can move this data to active storage, ready for further manipulation or review by users.
In conclusion, the client/server environment will allow preservation of previous investments and integration of
the team approach, using advanced exploration techniques in a heterogeneous computing environment, so that companies
can avoid becoming dependant on the proprietary technology of a particular vendor.
Training and Continuing Education
We know that specialists in the individual disciplines are versed in the working knowledge of their respective
areas; therefore there is no need for extensive training. We also know that the client/ server environment has
only been around for the last two years and has proven to work successfully in the E&P sector. The question
is whether the specialists in the individual disciplines are trained and ready to work in this environment such
that they can communicate their ideas with each other, and turn them into precise interpretations and profitable
decisions.
The answer is no The issue of major concern then is to get the specialists trained in this environment and translate
it into productivity and communications. The whole concept of this environment is different and new from pervious
ones. It is a whole new way of living, and management has to get its people adjusted to the new way of life. Management
has also to adjust its way of thinking to allow this new life to breed and grow with freedom and confidence, in
a reasonable time frame. This is the only way that people can learn quickly and become productive.
Management's role and user education are key issues too often overlooked when organizations select and acquire
exploration systems. Usually, hardware performance, software capabilities, data availability, data base design,
applications and total cost are the only concerns. Lack of clear management direction and proper education destines
the best system for failure, or at least disappointing results, regardless of the selection criteria and implementation
plan. Lack of training and education would only result in a "white elephant", increase payout time and
rate of return, loss on investments, low productivity and eventual bankruptcy.
Management's expectations must be well defined and communicated to the employees.
Unrealistic or contradictory expectations will result in lack of employee support for the systems. For example,
if management expects the E&P system to increase productivity, but will not accept a decrease in productivity
during the learning process, employees will be frustrated because rewards are often based on productivity. Also,
managers must understand their employees' level of "computer literacy" and provide appropriate training
and education.
It is important to differentiate "training" and "education". Whereas education seeks to enable
students to understand basic concepts, theories and principles, training strives to make the trainee proficient
in using the functions of a particular tool. In an E&P environment, being computer literate means knowing what
applications are available and when an application is an aid to your job, knowing how the application works, what
input is required, what output is generated and how to run the application.
What are managers expectations of an E&P system? Simply put, increased productivity~ reduced risk (i.e. greater
probability of finding oil and gas), and increased profits through higher revenues and reduced expenses/manpower.
Nothing is inherently wrong with these expectations but some concerns have not been addressed:
- what is the learning time to become proficient on the system? The fund for training and education may decrease
profitability in the short term.
- reducing the risk of drilling for oil and gas via an E&P system requires additional time to process "what
if models", an apparent decrease in employee productivity.
- what is the initial lead time and cost to build the necessary databases that will ultimately increase productivity
and profits. - should the E&P system be used for every project or only when applicable?
Most of these obstacles can be overcome through clear communications between management and employees. Management's
expectations must be well defined and balanced with employee abilities and the company's reward structure, or employees
will view management's actions with skepticism.
Although controlling management expectations is a key to the success or failure of an E&P system implementation,
adequate computer education is equally, if not more, important. Unfortunately, most corporations do not fully address
education issues and the abilities of their own employees.
There are a few obvious signs of inadequate education:
- employees are intimidated by the computer equipment
- complaints that the system is difficult to use
- complaints about equality in training
- support staff for technical computing is inadequate
- excuses such as the poor quality of the data
Most of these perceived problems can be traced to inadequate education and employees' belief that they will be
inferior or prosecuted for lacking computer skills
But these problems can be remedied through familiarization with the hardware, computer interpretation training,
self-education and problem solving skill development and acquisition of computer vocabulary literacy. The average
employee in the Trinidad work force today has little or no computer experience either on personal computers, mainframe
systems or the client/server environment. Before employees can be trained on sophisticated E&P applications,
they must be grounded on the basics about computer technology. Failing to provide a basic education will lead to
employee frustration, intimidation and a variety of perceived problems and excuses. There is no faster way of learning
than that provided by the immediate feedback of computer-aided training (Fig.
10).
Acquiring the Technology
We in the third world stand to benefit from the investment in technological development made by the first world.
We do not have to spend substantial amounts of money in Research and Development to implement the client/ server
environment. These countries have spent the money and have learnt from their mistakes. We in the third world need
to have expert, bright people who can copy these technologies and impart training to the benefit of others. We
stand to benefit in a most cost-effective manner and there should be no hesitation in this implementation. These
technologies, whether it is advanced exploration techniques, software, hardware, databases, organizational, etc:
have been developed and proven to work and are sitting out there. It is up to us to grab these opportunities and
"make hay while the sun shines".
How does this apply to the E&P Sector in Trinidad?
It has been shown that the following necessary ingredients must be integrated for successful exploration into the
21st century, i.e.:
- Advanced exploration techniques
- Specialized disciplines to form the integrated team approach
- Intuitive team leaders or integrators
- Integrated computer technology
- client/server environment (GASI RDBMS Databases, RISC workstations, Unix Operating Systems,
Networking)
- Research and Development in the work environment
- Continued training and education
- Exploration re-organization and process
- 3-D Seismic
We in Trinidad and Tobago have little or none of this in place. As a result, if we want to be involved in joint
venture agreements, be competitive, be profitable and grow, we need to get abreast, implement and integrate all
of these ingredients. If we do not, we will wither and die. We need to do this now and quickly. Today, we are experiencing
a drop in production rates and we need to halt this decline. The only way left to alleviate this problem is to
be vigorously involved in exploration activities both at home and abroad. We need to be well equipped to compete,
especially overseas.
One needs money in order to implement and integrate these ingredients. We are already disadvantaged because money
is a critical issue in this country. We do not have it easily available to us. We need to borrow. If such is the
case, we better have a proper framework and structure in place. One needs strategic planning and proper exploration
organization.
Like other third world countries, Trinidad invested oil profits made in the 1970's on other investments which were
unprofitable. We borrowed heavily and invested in non-oil, non-productive sectors. When the oil price fell in the
1980's we were unable to meet our investment commitments and fell into economic chaos. Today we are witnessing
the results of poor economic planning and management and can only imagine what our situation would have been if
we had re-invested even a small portion into exploration activities and up-dating our technology.
The opportunity now presents itself in a different way. The Americans have all these advanced exploration tools
but have limited areas domestically to use them in (or so they say). Instead of it becoming idle, resulting in
massive unemployment, the objective is to get involved in joint-venture agreements with overseas territories, which
have no funds for exploration activity and are already at the mercy of the IMF and World Bank. We are witnessing
a merging of cultures in order to take advantage of this next exploration opportunity or window. However, unlike
the early 1970's, before the nationalization of oil companies in the third world, when exploitation of third world
reserves without any transfer of technology was the order of the day, this time around we have to bargain for better
conditions and deals where we stand to benefit.
We cannot bargain if we are not equally as prepared as they are, and I am seeing that we are falling into the same
trap as in the early 1970's. The main reason is that we never re-organized ourselves effectively and efficiently
after the nationalisation of the oil companies in the early 1970's, in order to be prepared for this opportunity.
This is also largely due to a lack of transfer of technology and data/information by the expatriates to the nationals.
As a result, E&P managers were not equipped or did not have the managerial and marketing skills or foresight
to compete in international areas. We non-OPEC countries continue to suffer the consequences and to be controlled
by the policies and prices set by the remaining super powers and OPEC, because we lacked the foresight to plough
Oil profits from oil back into exploration activities and developing Oil exploration process.
We need to implement the necessary ingredients for successful exploration into the 21st century. We need to do
it quickly and if rationalization of the petroleum sector can bear this fruit then there should be no hesitation.
Geology does not stop at lease boundaries, and we need the integrated team approach on a regional scale if we are
to truly understand the Basin History for hydrocarbon entrapment in the Trinidad area. We need to effectively and
efficiently manage our reservoirs in order to maximize and increase production. We need integrated computer technology
to quickly and precisely define the reservoirs. This will allow us to reduce risks, increase productivity, be profitable
and competitive. In general, we would be able to grow and allow our own survival into the 21st century. To do this
we should bargain for some if not all of the necessary ingredients from foreign joint venture partners in the next
exploration opportunity. In selecting partners, their ability to provide these requirements as well as to allow
profitable returns on investments in the short to medium term should be the criteria. Our investment is our subsurface
rights.
These changes in technology and process do not happen overnight. Do not expect some joint venture godfather to
put all of this on a platter for us. We have to get up and get. We have to be alert, aware, smart and quick about
it. These things are best learned by doing what is required with commitment. Hopefully, we will do it right this
time around.
The author, Anthony Ramlackhansingh, has worked with Trinidad and Tobago Petroleum Company Ltd. and its predecessor
from 1978 to 1979 and from 1989 to the present. A past pupil of Harmony Hall Presbyterian School and Naparima Boys
College, he graduated with a BSc (Honors) degree from the University of Manitoba in 1978. He co-authored a paper
titled 'The Geology of Trinidad Tesoro's Palo Seco Field including South Erin and Central Los Bajos" for the
Fourth Latin American Geological Conference, in 1979. He is currently working on unraveling the tectonostratigraphic
evolution of the onshore areas along the southern coast of Trinidad and adjacent areas.
Figure 7: Emerging Trends
HARDWARE
Computer
Powerful computers running, RISC -reduces instructional set computing, RISC machines are faster than PC's, X-Terminals,
more memory, storage and output devices, Graphics capability, Standard operating system (UNIX), easy connectivity
Networking-
-reduced cost per seat, allows for a heterogeneous environment, allows for integration that is transparent to the
user, quick and easy communications between data applications and user, open systems that allow far growth and
preservation. Of previous investment, communications between UNLY and DOS machines, communications between UNIX
and DOS machines and mainframes
User interface (applications Programming interface)- -development of OSF MOTIF or OPENLOOK or OPENWORKS provide
a common graphical user interface between applications-data-user, allows for a consistent way of doing things
SOFTWARE
-powerful integrated computer based applications (e.g. Landmark, Geoquest, etc.), this is a result of the standard
operating system, the common user interface and the powerful/fast RISC technology, interactive software allows
far quick testing and verification of hypothesis. that will allow far the implementation of the integrated team
approach, integration of advanced exploration techniques and third party applications without much customization,
3-D views, simulations and modelling
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